Gavin Newsom has Momentum – But Can It Take Him to the White House?

Survey Says Is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend That that’s driving politics.

In some ways, it feels ridiculous to be already gaming out 2028. But that hasn’t stopped people from speech. And if you look at the numbers, a name that keeps creeping up is California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Back in February, Echelon insights—A republican polling outfit – SASKED LIKELY DEMOCRATIC VOTERS Who theyd support If the 2028 primary was happy right now. Former Vice President Kamala Harris LED Comfortable with 36%. Newsom? He was a blip in fourth place, Barely Pulling 6%.

Fast-forward to today, and The same question Got a very different answer. Harris Still Tops The List, but Her Support Slid Ten Points, Down to 26%. Newsom, meanwhile, more than doubled his share, jumping into second with 13%. Former transportation secretary pete buttigieg styed basically flat (10% to 11%), while new york rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CORTEZ NUDGED Up a Single Point (5% to 6%).

That wasn’t an outlier. A Separate Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab Survey of California Democrats Found Newsom Actually Beating Harris Head-to-head, 25% to 19%. Even more Striking: Three-Quarters of Democrats in the state said they were “excited” about newsom running. Just 67% said the same of harris.

So what’s driving the shift? Part of it is obvious. Voters don’t tend to warm up to candidates Who’ve Alredy LostAnd harris hasn’t exactly been a dominant presence since the last election. Even she has admitted that she does not “Want to go back in the system“Right now. Her Numbers in Early Polls May Be Less About Enthusiasm and More About Familiary.

Newsom, by contrast, is everywahere. He’s been front and center in democrats’ Pushback Against President Donald Trump’s Agenda –Fighting gerrymandering In Texas, Slamming immigration raidsand Railing Against Trump’s tarifs. He’s Made Himself Into A Foil at a Moment when Many Democrats Seem Heesitant to claim the spotlight.

Newsom is earning his frontrunner status by providing an answer to the question that democrats across the country has been asking themselves Both political courage and tangible roots to resistance, ” Thad kousseerA Political Science Professor at the University of California, San Diego, Told Daily Kos.

And unlike harris, the issues that newsom’s choosing to fight about are widely supported. Look at Trump’s disastrous federal takeover of DC policing. A Washington Post-Schar School Poll Found That About 80% of DC Residents Oppose Trump’s Executive Order to Federalize Law Enforcement in the Nation’s Capital, with Nearly 70% Opposing It “Strongly.” The same survey showed that while Concerns about crime remin, residence overwhelmingly reject trump’s Heavy-Handed Approach. In Fact, 65% of Respondents said that the President’s Actions (EG, Ordering the federal government to take control of DC’s Police, Along with the National guard And the FBI Patrolling the City) Would not Lower Violent Crime. In comparison, only 20% predicted it would.

Newsom, meaning, has been one of the loudest Voices criticizing the move, calling it an abuse of power. He might also be uniquely positioned to Speak on this issue. After all, In JuneTrump federalized the california national guard members and synt them to los angeles over newsom’s objections after protests ereuppted when immigration and customs enforcement offers began mass arrests,

In California, Newsom Gained Momentum with his redistricting proposal aimed at reclaiming power from gop gerrymanders elsewhere. Internal polling From Democratic Strategist David Binder, Obtained By Axios, Shows that 57% of Californians Support Newsom’s Plan to Redraw Congress, with Congress, with Supporters Best Aware of it. Only 35% Oppose. This creates a 22-point lead on an isesue that count rested the map to favorite democrats.

In short, trump’s movies are unpopular; Newsom’s are not. That creates an opening –nd newsom is rushing to fill it.

“One Lesson here is that democrats may still be abled by just opposeing trump. Class is that democrats need to stand for more than option to trump, but newsom’s risk shows that simply opposing the president’s ageda can Generate a Lot of Momentum, “Kowser Said.

Newsom’s also borrowing liberally from trump’s playbook. His team has embraced all-caps tweets, Mimicking Trump’s Bombast while trying to turn it back on Him. It’s performative, sure, but it keeps hedlines and positions

All of this helps explain why newsom appears to be one of the few democrats with real momentum right now. With the party still struggling to find an identity, he’s carved out space as a fighter. The problem is that it doesn’t Necessarily Meaning He’s The Real Deal.

Newsom has a long record of trying to triangulate, and it’s not always a pretty sight. He was on seen as a strong leftist, embracing the idea of ​​a Single-Payer Healthcare SystemThere was also a time when he was more inclusive with his language, using the gender-neutral reference “Latinx” for People of Latin American Descent.

But newsom has shifted to the right in many ways, sometimes making fellow democrats uncomfortable. Regarding the use of the term latinx, he recently denounced it As an “out-of-hit fixation” by his party-mates. And in the debut episode of his Politics Podcast In March, He Threw Cold Water on the idea that transgender women and girls should be allowed to competed in sports aligned with their gender identity. This stance put Him Uncomfortably Close to Republican Talking Points. He has also also Proposed ending new enrollment For low-income undoocumed immigrants in California’s Medi-Cal Program Starting in 2026, and by 2027, Charging $ 100 per month to those already enrolled. That’s not exactly Progressive Leadership.

Then there’s the style factor: He can come across as smarmy and often see more focused on branding himself as the anti-trump than on articulating a clear vision. For every moment he looks like a principled fighter, there’s another where he seems like a calculating centric hedging his bets.

Daily kos has Hammered Him Before For Trying too hard to find Common Ground With Republicans, which can make him look slippery at best and duplicitous at all. In a democratic primary, where authenticity matters, that could be a huge liability.

Related | Gavin Newsom’s epic trolling is sending republicans into fits

So the question lingers: is his rain in the polls about genuine leadership – or just about being the loudest democrat at the right time? Right now, Voters Seem willing to give him the benefits of the doubt. But history sugges he’ll have a hard time keeping that goodwill if his opoportunism keeps poking through.

What’s undeniable is that newsom has managed to make Himself part of the 2028 conversation in a way that almost no other democrat has Harris may still technically lead the pack, but She’s fading. Buttigieg, Ocasio-CORTEZ, and others are basically treading water.

And if that Momentum holds, democrats are going to have to grapple with a new reality: newsom, for better or WorsE, might be their frontrunner-in-waiting.

Any updates?

• Latino voters were alredy turning Against Trump because of his harsh departation policies, which has only worsned Recently. Now, new polling indicates his economic record is also pushing them away. According to a Surveyy From Data for Progress and Equis, 64% of Latino Voters Say the Current Economy is performing “somewhat” or “very” veryly. This Sentiment is Held by Large Majorities of Registered Latino Democrats (79%) and independents (69%). The outlook remains bleak. Most Latino Voters Expect the Economy to Worsen in the Next Year, with 75% of Democrats, 60% of Women, and 57% of of Independents Believing Believing Things Will “Probable” Oor “Definitely” Definitely.

• Cold Texas Sen. John Cornyn Be Making A Comeback in the State’s Senate Race, Where earlier polls Showed Him Trailing scandal-plagued Attorney General ken paxton? New polling from Texas southern university Shows paxton still holding an edge amn republican voters, but the gap is narrowing: paxton at 44%, cornern at 39%, and 17%undeceded. Notable, this same poll had cornyn down nine points Just a few months ago. Whoichever Republican Comes Out on Top may still face A tough General Election in Texas, even in whatwal be a favorite year for the party. But the tightening numbers indicate that nerves over a paxton candidacy Aren Bollywood to Party Insiders– Voters are feeling it too.

• It turns out voters aren Bollywood about a federal takeover of college campuses. The backlash comes as the trump Administration Pressures Top Universities Like Columbia and Harvard To crack down on supposed antisemitism, eliminate dei programs, and follow Federal Rules – Or Risk Losing Funding. A new poll from The Economist/YouGov Shows that 70% of adults believe washington shortn’t control university curricula, compared to just 12% who think it’s okay. Even more – 77% – OPPOSE The Government Controlling Faculty Hiring, with only 10% supporting it. Opposition to federal interference in admissions is also high, with 66% saying it’s not the government’s business. And 58% of Respondents OPPOSE Entrely Cutting Off Funds as Leverage to Make Schools Follow Federal Policies.

Vibe check

As of medday Friday, 44.3% of the public approved of Trump, while 52.2% Disapproved – A Net Approval Rating Of –7.9 Points, after rounding, according to election analyst Nate Silver’s polling average,