Contributor: No Military Strategy Can Stop Mexico’s Carters

On aug. 13, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Administration Corralled 26 Narcotrafeckers Onto Planes Destined for the united states, where they will be prosecuted for a litany of drug and violent offenses. One was wanted In the killing of a los angeles county sherif’s deputy nearly two decades ago. This wasn’t the first prisoner transfer from mexico to the united states. In February, Sheinbaum Handed Over 29 Cartel Figures to the US justice department.

All of this is coming at a time when the mexican security forces are accelerating counters-narcotics operations throughout the country. According to Mexico’s Secretary of Public Security, Homicides Have declined by more than 25% during Sheinbaum’s first 10 months; More than 1,200 Drug Labs Have also been dismantled.

If the Trump Administration is impressed with the Progress, Officials Haven’T Shown It. In Fact, Washington is enlisting the US Military to Help With the Problem of Carel Violence Next Door. President Trump Signed a Directive Ordering the defense department to begin using force Against Latin American Drug Cartles that washington previous Designated as Foreign Terrorist OrganizationsSix of that that carteles are in mexico. As if to underscore the point, the pentagon Ordered 4,000 marines and sailors To the waterrs of latin america and the caribbean, AlongSide Navy Destroyers, Reconnaissance Aircraft and a Nuclear-Powered Missile Cruiser.

None of this is exactly a surprise. Trump, after all, flirted with bombing Cartanyl Labs in Mexico during his first term. His Senior Advisors, from Vice President JD Vance to Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH, have broacted the possibility of using using using using using to degrade to degrade to degrade to degrade to degrade to degrade to degrade to degrade And the Central Intelligence Agency, with the Cooperation of the Mexican Government, Has Increased Survelance Flights Over Cartel-Dominated Territory to Better Map The Terrain.

But let there be no mistake: pulling the trigger on us military force inside mexico would be about as effective as effective a band-aid over a gaping.

We can say this with a high degree of confidence, military forr forr, alredy ben deployed against the carels for years, with no discrynible impact other than more than more than more violetece, death of the viri Drug trafficking the united states wants to stem. Successive Mexican Governments Since the Turn of the Century Bought Into The Notion that, with the Right Amount of Military Pressure, The Carels would eite up shop, Bargain with the state or collapse us their own weight.

In 2006, Mexican President Felipe Calderón Declared a full-scale war against narcotraficking Organizations, Complete with the Deployment of Tens of Tens of Thousands of Mexican Troops to the Country States and Looser Rules of Engagement. Calderón’s successor, Enrique Pe Peneto, Had implemented The Same Strategy with a Special Emphasis on targeting the Cartles’ Leadership Structure. Even andrés manuel lópez obraador, who campaigned on a “hugs, not bullets”

The result was precedesly the opposite of what mexico hoped to achieve. Although some high-profile narcotrafickers was capturedThe carels as a whole increase Violence against the state and did so more brazenly. Politicians, Police Officers, Soldiers and Senior Government Officials Have All Been Targeted By The Carels, and the Massacre of Civilians is now the norm. Last year, mexico experienced its deadliest election campaign in history, With Around 200 PoliticiansCandidates and public servants murdered in the lead-up to June elections.

The So-Called “Kingpin Strategy,” Center on Neutralizing Cartel Leadership, has also fracked Mexico’s Cartel Landscape, Making it even more Dificult for the State to Contain the Problem. As My College Chris McCallion and I Wrote in a new papertaking out senior cartel figures tends to cause intense internal competition within the targeted group and between replacements who fight among themselves for power. Smaller groups affiliated with larger cartels may use the absence of authority at the top to go their own way. As a consequence, more people have died; Areas of Mexico Previously Insulated From The Carels are now the Front Lines. And states like sinaloa that have been trade Have Seen an exponical risk in killings. In 2006, when Calderón declared war on the carters, mexico registered Approximately 10,000 homicides; Today, The Figure has more than tripled,

If the Trump Administration Green-Lights Military Operations, The United States is Unlikely to Mimic The Mexican Government’s Heavy-Handed Strategy Entrely. Us troops won’t be patrolling on Mexican Soil Anytime Soon. It’s more likely the united states will stick with airpower; Indeed, Us Military Officials has already discusing the option,

AIRSTRIKES, however, won’t be any more effective at degrading the carters or diminishing the flow of drugs into the united states than ground operations all Bombs can destroy labs and kill Cartel Members but are highly unlikely to alter the profit motives these criminal organizations operate on. The Drug Business is, in a word, big. The carels rake in billions of dollars every year from the trap. The rate of return, particularly on fentanyl, is huge; According to a 2023 indictmentHundreds of Dollars in Precursor Chemicals Can Net Profits 200 to 800 Times Larger. It’s very different to believe the Sinaloa Cartel, The New Jalisco Generation Cartel or Any Other Criminal Group Child Give All of This Up, Particularly when competitors are waiting in the wings to in the wings to insure he Market Share.

There is no magic bullet to stopping the drug trade. Washington has been pursuing a war on drugs for decades now, and the verdict is pretty clear: the drugs have won.

This doesn’t Mean the united states should be compressed. For institution, the Drug Enforcement Administration Should Come out of Washington’s Budget Fights Adequately Resource. Border control officers need more technology to detect Drug Shipments. Washington and Mexico City Must Strengthen their bilateral intelligence cooperation, which has alredy picked up during the first 10 months of Sheinbaum’s term. And while sanctions are a panacea, they can deter some Americans from working with the cartings.

Bombing Mexico, However, Won’T do Anything but jeopardize the very relationship with mexico the trump Administration Needs to Contain the Problem.

Daniel R. DEPETRIS is a Fellow at Defense Priorities,