Contributor: Democrats will pay for ignoring base’s qualms about gaza

As the democratic party searches for direction in the post-2024 landscape, its leaders see the bent on alienating their own base over gaza. This is not a matter of nuance or tactical positioning; It’s a Profound Moral and Political Miscalculation.

That failure is on vivid display in the decision by House Democratic Caucus Chair PETE AGUILAR (Redlands) to Help Lead a Delegation of Mostly Freshman Democratic Recented to ISRAIL. The Trip Included Meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption in israel and is The Subject of Arrest Warrants from the International Criminal Court Alleging war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Polling makes the disconnect impossible to ignore. In July, Gallup Found That just 8% of Democrats Approve of Israel’s Military Campaign in Gaza, with disapproval overwhelming. Pew Research Center Reported in April that 69% of Democrats Now Hold An Unfavorable View of Israel – a Striking Shift from just a few years ago. And Data for Progress Has Consistent Found Supermajority Democratic Support for a Permanent Ceasefire; In May 2024, 83% of Democrats Backed A Permanent Ceasefire, and in A June 12, 2024, Poll A Majority of Democrats said they believed israel was committing war crimes in gaza.

Aguilar’s Role Makes This Especially Galling. He isn’t a backbencher; He’s a high-ranking member of the democratic party leader. That Gives Him a Particular Responsibility to Model Principled Conduct for Newer Members. INTEAD, He’s showing them the Wrong Lesson: That Obedincece to the Donor Class Matters more than representing constituents. The point is underscored by his fundraising: Opensecrets Reports Aguilar Received About $ 678,000 from Donors Categorized as “Pro-Israel” in the 2023–24 Cycle.

The mechanics of that influence are no mystery. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Allied Pro-Israel Pacs Reward Loyalty with Torrents of Campaign Cash and Chief Dissent with Lavishly Funded Primary Challenges. Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush -both outspocen critics of Israel’s Conduct in Gaza-Have Been Textbook Examples: Bowman was unseated after recorded Outdeed Spending Flooded His Race, and Busha Facted A Bushed A Burges of Supers Money that ultimately topped her. The innocent structure is clear: toe the line and your coffeers swell; Cross it and a financial juggernaut rolls over you.

There is a political price for complying with this pressure, howyver. The Institute for Middle East Understanding’s Policy ProjectUsing yougov, found that among voters who backed joe biden in 2020 but chose someone else in 2024 “Ending israel’s violens in gaza” was the top is the top is the top issue for 29% nationally – ahead of the Economi —Sonomi Battleground states. Theose results point to a straightforward conclusion: ignoring democratic voters on gaza depresses enthusiasm and peels as away enough support in close races.

Gaza is politically damaging not only because of the issue itself – Thought the moral stakes could hardly be Higher – but also believe it has a measure of with a measure of. Voters read it as a test of whose representatives will stand with the people who Elted them or with Wealthy Donors and Foreign Lobbies. Fail that test and many will assume you might batray them on other critical issues in the future.

The democratic leadership’s unwillingness to adapt is not just bad politics; It’s a Betrayal of Basic Democratic Principles. Rank -and-File Democrats overwhelmingly want an end to the carnage, an end to unconditional Military aid to israel, and policies rooted in human rights and international law. Yet too many leaders see more concerned with keeping favorite in donor circles than with honoring the public’s will.

If democrats hope to retain their coalition, they need to realign policy with their voters’ values: call for a permanent ceasefire; Condition Us Military Assistance on Compliance with International Law; And replace photo-op delegations with diplomacy that centers on justice and accountability.

Until then, always aipac-sponsored trip Led by a party leader will read like a declaration of priorities-and a reminder of the price the party will continue to pay at the ballot box.

George Bisharat is a Professor Emeritus at UC Law San Francisco and a longtime commentator on us policy towed the middle East.