Five things to watch from Powell’s Last Jackson Hole Speech – CNBC tv18

Jerome Powell’s Upcoming Jackson Hole Speech on August 22 is Eighth and Final as Federal Reserve Chair, and Markets are Bracing for What Cold be a defining moment. Investors has alredy priced in expectations for rate cuts, but power’s jackson hole track records sugges he rarely leaves markets unmoved.

Here are five key things to watch from his address.

1. Powell’s Signal on September Rate Cuts

Markets have all but priced in a Quarter-Point Cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting, with the cme fedwatch tool showing an 81% probability. Traders also expect another cut by year-end. That makes power’s words especially market-moving. If he hints that the fed wants to wait for more data, investors may have to Swiftly Rethank Theose Bets.

2. Inflation Goals Versus a WeaKening Jobs Market

Inflation has an eased from its peak but still remains Above the fed’s 2% target -headline consumer price index (CPI) was 2.7% in July, and core information study at 3.1%.

At the same time, jobs growth has slowed sharply, with july nonfarm payroll gains the weakest in nearly five years and earlier months revised sharply lower.

Powell has often said the unemployment rate is the best gauge of labour health. If he leans on that weakness, it could be read as a sign the fed is ready to ease soon. If he focusses more on sticky inflation, it may mean cuts aren’s deal.

This year’s theme-“Labor Markets in Transition”-Allows Powell to Frame Policy Beyond Near-Term Rate Mrows and Touch on the Longer-Term Playbook, Including the Fed’s Strategy of Average inflation Targeting. There’s ongoing debate over the center the Central Bank should stand to its 2% goal or tweak it. A CNBC Survey Shows 52% of Respondents Want the target retained, while 44% favor a broader range of Around 1.4% to 2.7%.

Investors will be Parsing Powell’s Words for Signs that Fed May Redefine “Price Stability” Under its dual mandate.

3. Cracks in Fed Consensus

The minutes of the July meeting showed rare public dishes. Two governors – Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, Both Appointed by Donald Trump – Voted for a Cut, While Most Policymakers Wantes Wantes Wantes Wanted To Keep Rates Steady at 4.25–4.50%, CITING Tariff-Related Inflation Risks. Reuters noted this was the first time since 1993 that two fed governors dissected on the same move, a sign of how divided the central bank has become just as powerlesss into jackson hole.

4. Politics looming over the fed

President Donald Trump has reepeatedly criticized power for not cutting rates faster. But power and his colleagues have so far resisted, citing the risk of inflation from tarifs. That tension will hang over his jackson hole speech. Investors will be listening for how strongly he frames decisions as data-drive, which would serve as a subtle definition of the fed’s autonomy.

A CNBC Survey Shows How Divided Expectations are for the Next Fed Chair after power power Think policy will be shaped in coordination with the white house. Nearly two-thirds also expect tariffs to drive “substantiial” inflation in the months Ahead, Making Powell’s Task even more complicated.

5. Clues for bonds, dollars, and stock

Powell’s jackson hole speechs often jolt markets, especially bonds. Reuters Calculations Show that after Each of His Past Seven Speechs, 10-Year Treasury Yields Rose by An Average of 21 Basis Points, The Dollar Gained 1.4%, The S & P 500 Fell Nearly 2%. In 2022, his stark warning of “pain” for households and businesses sparked a 12% stock slump in just a month.

The timing also matters. The fed meets in mid-partmber, but key reports-Including the July pse inflation print on August 29 and the next jobs report in early September- Powell’s message.